Thursday, January 22, 2015

The Effectiveness of Data Collection and Drone Strikes

John Raymond
            It seems that the necessity of drone strikes, and the NSA’s metadata collection program, is questionable at best.  Although both sure produce some results, their actual operational benefit is not clear.  First I will address the drone strikes, and then discuss the metadata surveillance program.
            The data from the New America Foundation seems to indicate that the drone strikes are essentially doing their job.  Civilian casualties number roughly 10% of the total deaths, and the number of militants killed numbers in the thousands.  Based solely on those numbers, the drone strike program is effective at killing militants and minimizing collateral damage.  But  there are a few problems with the conclusion that drone strikes are strategically effective and necessary.  Firstly, there is the obvious debate over the actual numbers.  Muhammad Idrees Ahmad points out inconsistencies in the NAF’s data and asserts that they are uncannily similar to official administration reports.  Additionally, he mentions examples of people believed to have been killed by drone strikes, who later reappear.   Ultimately, I do not think there will ever be an objective number, intelligence gathering methods are not perfect, and even if they were, the reported numbers can still depend on the particular organizations bias.  Secondly, it is unclear if the militants who are killed are even of high strategic value.  That information is likely harder to access, as well as classified.  Maybe they are bomb-makers or upper level commanders, or maybe they are of lesser importance but are simply a target of opportunity.  Furthermore, the fight against terrorism is not something that is won by killing everyone who poses a threat.  Blindly killing terrorists only serves to create more anger and animosity towards the US.  Even if the drone strikes mostly kill high-value targets, and with minimal civilian acts of violent imperialism on the part of the US, or create new hatreds of the US and its allies, are they actually productive?  Part of the issue is the number of people who dislike the US because of its foreign policy and actions around the globe.  Killing is not the solution to that aspect of the problem.

            In regards to the NSA data collection program, even Gen. Keith Alexander admitted that in only two situations did metadata collection prevent terrorist activities that would have otherwise continued.  Is it useful to some degree?  Surely it is, otherwise it would not exist.  However, Bergen and his associates make the argument that most of 50 odd cases cited, could have been accomplished without the use of the collection program.  I think what is most telling is Gen. Alexander’s testimony.  If it were the case that the collection program was absolutely vital to defeating most terrorist plots, he would have said so.  The metadata collection program is a tool in the intelligence toolbox, but the reason for the adamant support of it may be for reasons other than foiling terrorist plots.  Greenwald’s book alludes to presentations and documents, taken from the Snowden files, detailing the NSA’s desire to “collect it all” in order to assert dominance over the global economic and communication network.  It is very possible that the desire for the US to observe and be able to dominate other countries and non-US companies is in part the reason for having such programs in place.  If that is the case, that brings on another set questions: do economic dominance or other non-terrorism objectives justify these programs?  Are those things the United States should even be engaging in at all?  Is it necessary?  Is it morally permissible?   Although important, those questions lead us into a very different area of discussion.

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